mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
probably vs timetk
A side-by-side editorial comparison of probably and timetk — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
probably vs timetk: at a glance
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
What is timetk?
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
timetk handles time series wrangling, visualization, and feature engineering in a tidyverse idiom. Its defining recent move was absorbing the anomalize package outright in 2.9.0, bringing anomaly detection, cleaning, and the associated plots inside timetk rather than leaving them in a sibling package. Development then paused for nearly two years before 2.9.1, a robustness and documentation release.
probably vs timetk: editorial side-by-side
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
timetk
0.0ANALYTICS
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
◆ Current state
timetk handles time series wrangling, visualization, and feature engineering in a tidyverse idiom. Its defining recent move was absorbing the anomalize package outright in 2.9.0, bringing anomaly detection, cleaning, and the associated plots inside timetk rather than leaving them in a sibling package. Development then paused for nearly two years before 2.9.1, a robustness and documentation release.
◆ Where it's heading
The trajectory before the pause was consolidation: fold in adjacent functionality, then make the visualization layer handle many series at once via trelliscopejs, then broaden feature generation with tk_tsfeatures(). The recent release works on the least glamorous layer — internal generics so date parsing and sequence generation behave consistently across Date, POSIXct, hms, yearmon, and yearqtr — which is the kind of foundation work a package does when it has accumulated too many special cases. The long gap and the CI-refresh content suggest maintenance attention rather than a new direction.
◆ Prediction
The stated gap is the unimplemented twitter method for anomalize(), which is the one concrete outstanding item the release notes name; beyond that the recent work points to consolidation rather than expansion.
Alternatives to probably and timetk
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either probably or timetk.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
mlr3tuning
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
tidyposterior
A finished Bayesian model-comparison package in pure maintenance mode
See all probably alternatives → · See all timetk alternatives →
Recent activity from probably and timetk
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 11mo agotimetktimetk 2.9.1 makes date parsing consistent across time classes
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 2y agotimetktimetk 2.9.0 absorbs the anomalize package ⚡
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
- 4y agotimetktimetk 2.8.1 exposes trelliscope plotting parameters
- 4y agotimetktimetk 2.8.0 adds trelliscopejs support for many-series plots
- 4y agotimetktimetk 2.7.0 adds tk_tsfeatures() for grouped feature matrices
- 4y agotimetktimetk 2.6.2 adds .week_start and facet direction controls
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between probably and timetk?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. probably and timetk are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is probably better than timetk?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. probably and timetk are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to timetk?
Top timetk alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "timetk alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/timetk for the full list with editorial commentary on each.