mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
mlr3tuning vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of mlr3tuning and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
mlr3tuning vs probably: at a glance
What is mlr3tuning?
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
mlr3tuning provides hyperparameter optimization for the mlr3 ecosystem, and its recent history is dominated by the asynchronous tuning path: archive freezing, callback stages around queue evaluation, and version-locked compatibility with the rush backend. Releases pair a small feature with several fixes and an explicit compatibility line naming the mlr3 or rush version they track. The most recent release drops all workarounds for older rush versions, which suggests that dependency has stabilized enough to require rather than accommodate.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
mlr3tuning vs probably: editorial side-by-side
mlr3tuning
2.5ANALYTICS
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
◆ Current state
mlr3tuning provides hyperparameter optimization for the mlr3 ecosystem, and its recent history is dominated by the asynchronous tuning path: archive freezing, callback stages around queue evaluation, and version-locked compatibility with the rush backend. Releases pair a small feature with several fixes and an explicit compatibility line naming the mlr3 or rush version they track. The most recent release drops all workarounds for older rush versions, which suggests that dependency has stabilized enough to require rather than accommodate.
◆ Where it's heading
Two things are being tidied at once. The async archive is converging on a consistent data.table representation across batch and async variants, so results are shaped the same regardless of how tuning ran. Separately, the package is becoming a better ecosystem citizen — unioning tuner properties on load instead of overwriting them, removing its callbacks on unload, and raising informative errors from AutoTuner accessors on an untrained model. Both are the marks of a package used as a dependency more than as a destination.
◆ Prediction
With rush pinned to 1.2.0 and the compatibility shims gone, the next release is likely to expose more of the async path through callbacks rather than change the tuning interface.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to mlr3tuning and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either mlr3tuning or probably.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
timetk
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
tidyposterior
A finished Bayesian model-comparison package in pure maintenance mode
See all mlr3tuning alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from mlr3tuning and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 18d agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.6.1 stops clobbering other packages' tuner properties
- 4mo agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.6.0 aligns archive column order across tuning classes
- 8mo agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.5.1 tracks xgboost 3.1.2.1
- 8mo agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.5.0 adds queue evaluation stages to async callbacks
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.4.0 unifies logging under a base mlr3 logger
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 1y agomlr3tuningmlr3tuning 1.3.0 adds a frozen async archive and leaner worker storage
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between mlr3tuning and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. mlr3tuning is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 2.5 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is mlr3tuning better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. mlr3tuning is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 2.5 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to mlr3tuning?
Top mlr3tuning alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "mlr3tuning alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/mlr3tuning for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.