mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
probably vs tidyposterior
A side-by-side editorial comparison of probably and tidyposterior — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Shared themes:tidymodels
probably vs tidyposterior: at a glance
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
What is tidyposterior?
A finished Bayesian model-comparison package in pure maintenance mode
tidyposterior compares model performance using Bayesian resampling analysis, and it reached its intended shape years ago. Every release since 1.0.0 has been maintenance: a broken test under R-devel, a maintainer email change, and most recently compatibility with an upcoming ggplot2 release plus the base-pipe transition. The substantive API decisions — autoplot() over ggplot() methods, tibble returns from contrast_models() — were settled in the 0.x series.
probably vs tidyposterior: editorial side-by-side
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
tidyposterior
0.0ANALYTICS
A finished Bayesian model-comparison package in pure maintenance mode
◆ Current state
tidyposterior compares model performance using Bayesian resampling analysis, and it reached its intended shape years ago. Every release since 1.0.0 has been maintenance: a broken test under R-devel, a maintainer email change, and most recently compatibility with an upcoming ggplot2 release plus the base-pipe transition. The substantive API decisions — autoplot() over ggplot() methods, tibble returns from contrast_models() — were settled in the 0.x series.
◆ Where it's heading
The package tracks its dependencies rather than developing on its own line, and the dependencies do the moving: rstanarm API changes, dplyr 1.0.0, testthat 3e, ggplot2. Its integration surface widened once, when perf_mod() gained methods for tuning parameter objects from tune, finetune, and workflowsets, and has been stable since. This is what a completed package in an active ecosystem looks like.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next release to be triggered by an upstream change rather than by anything tidyposterior wants to do differently.
Alternatives to probably and tidyposterior
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either probably or tidyposterior.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
mlr3tuning
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
timetk
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
See all probably alternatives → · See all tidyposterior alternatives →
Recent activity from probably and tidyposterior
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 1.0.1.9000 prepares for an upcoming ggplot2 release
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 2y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 1.0.1 fixes a test broken under R-devel
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
- 4y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 1.0.0 modernizes internals to pivot_longer and testthat 3e
- 5y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 0.1.0 adds perf_mod() methods for tune and workflowsets
- 6y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 0.0.3 returns tibbles and adds a formula override
- 7y agotidyposteriortidyposterior 0.0.2 removes example RData files for CRAN
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between probably and tidyposterior?
Both compete on the same themes — tidymodels — within Analytics. probably and tidyposterior are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is probably better than tidyposterior?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. probably and tidyposterior are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to tidyposterior?
Top tidyposterior alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "tidyposterior alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/tidyposterior for the full list with editorial commentary on each.