mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
fable vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of fable and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
fable vs probably: at a glance
What is fable?
fable keeps widening its model shelf, one econometric class at a time
fable is the tidyverts forecasting engine, and its releases are almost entirely about which model families it can express. The 0.4.x line added the vector-error-correction and VARIMA classes plus impulse-response methods; 0.5.0 adds fractional differencing via ARFIMA. Between those, the releases are CRAN-check patches and documentation passes.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
fable vs probably: editorial side-by-side
fable
0.0ANALYTICS
fable keeps widening its model shelf, one econometric class at a time
◆ Current state
fable is the tidyverts forecasting engine, and its releases are almost entirely about which model families it can express. The 0.4.x line added the vector-error-correction and VARIMA classes plus impulse-response methods; 0.5.0 adds fractional differencing via ARFIMA. Between those, the releases are CRAN-check patches and documentation passes.
◆ Where it's heading
The package is closing the gap with the older forecast package's model coverage while keeping the tidy model-specification grammar. Each substantive release is a new model class plus the generate()/IRF() plumbing to make it behave like the existing ones. Maintenance releases cluster around CRAN policy and ggplot2/tsibble compatibility rather than internal rewrites.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next substantive release to add another model class or extend generate()/IRF() coverage to the classes that still lack them, rather than change the modelling interface.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to fable and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either fable or probably.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
mlr3tuning
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
timetk
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
See all fable alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from fable and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 6mo agofablefable adds ARFIMA and fractional differencing ⚡
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 1y agofableIndexing and generate() fixes for VECM models
- 1y agofableVECM and VARIMA models land, plus IRF for VAR and ARIMA ⚡
- 2y agofablePatch for C++ R header changes
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 2y agofableCRAN check patch with generate() fixes
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
- 3y agofableTSLM forecasts gain Student's t intervals
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between fable and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. fable and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is fable better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. fable and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to fable?
Top fable alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "fable alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/fable for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.