mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
Countly vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of Countly and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Countly vs probably: at a glance
What is Countly?
Countly's LTS line is spending its releases on hardening the surfaces customers extend.
The 25.03 LTS and 24.05 branches are moving together, and the recent content is dominated by security and scoping work rather than features. The latest LTS rebuilds the api and frontend Docker images as multi-stage builds on Debian 13 with Node 24 so compilers and build tooling no longer ship, overrides fourteen vulnerable transitive dependencies, and replaces the unmaintained v8-sandbox behind custom code with isolated-vm. Earlier releases scoped internal event hooks to their own apps, fixed the consents table returning fields beyond the consent columns, and stopped dashboard widgets being copied by users without access to the referenced apps.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
Countly vs probably: editorial side-by-side
Countly
5.0ANALYTICS
Countly's LTS line is spending its releases on hardening the surfaces customers extend.
◆ Current state
The 25.03 LTS and 24.05 branches are moving together, and the recent content is dominated by security and scoping work rather than features. The latest LTS rebuilds the api and frontend Docker images as multi-stage builds on Debian 13 with Node 24 so compilers and build tooling no longer ship, overrides fourteen vulnerable transitive dependencies, and replaces the unmaintained v8-sandbox behind custom code with isolated-vm. Earlier releases scoped internal event hooks to their own apps, fixed the consents table returning fields beyond the consent columns, and stopped dashboard widgets being copied by users without access to the referenced apps.
◆ Where it's heading
The pattern across these releases is closing the gaps where a customer-supplied artefact — custom hook code, a copied widget, a projection on a request — could reach further than intended. That work is now touching the runtime itself, and the isolated-vm swap is a breaking change: custom code relying on setTimeout, setInterval or async completion fails with a logged error instead of running. The journey engine is the only place shipping genuinely new capability, and it is enterprise-only.
◆ Prediction
Expect follow-up releases to soften the custom-code migration, since the isolated-vm switch silently breaks any hook that awaited a timer, and further ab-testing work now that pystan has been replaced with compiled Stan executables.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to Countly and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either Countly or probably.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
mlr3tuning
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
timetk
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
See all Countly alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from Countly and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 1d agoCountlyCustom-code sandbox swapped to isolated-vm; images rebuilt on Node 24
- 10d agoCountlyFixes for event keys containing special characters
- 10d agoCountlyJourney deeplinks take dynamic parameters; hooks validated on save
- 20d agoCountlyStar-rating logo path and data-manager transformation fixes
- 22d agoCountlyLTS backport: data-manager transformation fix
- 1mo agoCountlyJourneys survive user merges; SDK-provided asset paths
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between Countly and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. Countly is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is Countly better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. Countly is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to Countly?
Top Countly alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "Countly alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/countly for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.