mlr3proba
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
Comparison · Analytics
ggeffects vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of ggeffects and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
ggeffects vs probably: at a glance
What is ggeffects?
ggeffects hands its contrast engine to modelbased and keeps the interface
ggeffects computes and plots marginal effects for a long tail of R model classes. Its recent line has two threads: steadily broadening model support and argument surface, and repeatedly absorbing breaking changes from the packages it computes on top of. In 2.2.0 it stopped absorbing them and delegated test_predictions() and johnson_neyman() to modelbased instead.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
ggeffects vs probably: editorial side-by-side
ggeffects
0.0ANALYTICS
ggeffects hands its contrast engine to modelbased and keeps the interface
◆ Current state
ggeffects computes and plots marginal effects for a long tail of R model classes. Its recent line has two threads: steadily broadening model support and argument surface, and repeatedly absorbing breaking changes from the packages it computes on top of. In 2.2.0 it stopped absorbing them and delegated test_predictions() and johnson_neyman() to modelbased instead.
◆ Where it's heading
The package is settling into a front-end role — a consistent predict_response() interface over other people's estimation engines — rather than owning the computation itself. The 2.x releases also show a pattern of removing deprecated arguments and clarifying mixed-model semantics, so the interface is being tightened as the backend is outsourced.
◆ Prediction
Expect the features lost in the modelbased handover to return as that package's contrast and slope estimation matures, rather than being reimplemented locally.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to ggeffects and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either ggeffects or probably.
mlr3viz
mlr3viz keeps the ecosystem's plots working while the plots themselves move out
mlr3tuning
mlr3tuning is rebuilding its async machinery under a stable public surface
timetk
timetk swallowed anomalize whole, then went quiet for two years
modelbased
modelbased is turning marginal effects into a full contrast grammar
parameters
easystats' parameters package absorbs one more model class every few weeks
See all ggeffects alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from ggeffects and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 1y agoggeffectsggeffects delegates contrasts and slopes to modelbased ⚡
- 1y agoggeffectsFive focal terms and formula-based contrast tests
- 1y agoggeffectsMixed-model predictions split type from interval
- 1y agoggeffectsBias correction for back-transformed mixed-model predictions
- 1y agoggeffectsSupport for WeightIt model classes
- 2y agoggeffectsglmgee support and vcov controls for ggemmeans()
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between ggeffects and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. ggeffects and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is ggeffects better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. ggeffects and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to ggeffects?
Top ggeffects alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "ggeffects alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/ggeffects for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.