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Comparison · Analytics
forecasting vs probmed
A side-by-side editorial comparison of forecasting and probmed — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Shared themes:r package
forecasting vs probmed: at a glance
What is forecasting?
HIDDA.forecasting is a book chapter's reproducibility artifact, not a package under development.
HIDDA.forecasting accompanies a book chapter on forecasting infectious disease counts; its vignettes reproduce the results presented there using arima, prophet, glarma, hhh4contacts and scoringRules. The 1.0.0 release states this outright — it is the version used for the chapter, pinned to CRAN package versions as of July 2018. Every release since has been a vignette rebuild against newer R and dependency versions.
What is probmed?
probmed went from one probabilistic effect size to a family of them in sixteen days.
probmed computes P_med, a scale-free probabilistic effect size for causal mediation, as part of the Data-Wise mediationverse alongside medfit, medsim and RMediation. Three releases in three weeks took it from a single estimator to four additional families built on a shared cross-fitted corner-EIF core, covering gauge-calibrated, incremental-elasticity and Sobol variance-share versions of the proportion mediated. Distribution is GitHub and r-universe rather than CRAN, with a load-bearing Remotes pin on medfit.
forecasting vs probmed: editorial side-by-side
forecasting
0.0ANALYTICS
HIDDA.forecasting is a book chapter's reproducibility artifact, not a package under development.
◆ Current state
HIDDA.forecasting accompanies a book chapter on forecasting infectious disease counts; its vignettes reproduce the results presented there using arima, prophet, glarma, hhh4contacts and scoringRules. The 1.0.0 release states this outright — it is the version used for the chapter, pinned to CRAN package versions as of July 2018. Every release since has been a vignette rebuild against newer R and dependency versions.
◆ Where it's heading
The release pattern is maintenance on an eight-year cadence dictated entirely by the surrounding ecosystem: 1.1.1 rebuilt under R 4.0.4, 1.1.2 under R 4.3.2, 1.1.3 under R 4.6.1, each reporting whether the numbers moved. They mostly have not — the recurring note is minor numerical differences confined to the prophet forecasts in vignette('CHILI_prophet'). The only substantive change in the visible history is 1.1.0's methodological tidy-up of the scoring comparisons.
◆ Prediction
Nothing in these entries points to new functionality; the next release is most likely another vignette rebuild whenever a dependency change or a CRAN check failure forces one.
probmed
0.0ANALYTICS
probmed went from one probabilistic effect size to a family of them in sixteen days.
◆ Current state
probmed computes P_med, a scale-free probabilistic effect size for causal mediation, as part of the Data-Wise mediationverse alongside medfit, medsim and RMediation. Three releases in three weeks took it from a single estimator to four additional families built on a shared cross-fitted corner-EIF core, covering gauge-calibrated, incremental-elasticity and Sobol variance-share versions of the proportion mediated. Distribution is GitHub and r-universe rather than CRAN, with a load-bearing Remotes pin on medfit.
◆ Where it's heading
The pace is manuscript-driven — estimators arrive with their citations attached and vignettes alongside, and the 0.1.0 notes correct the estimand itself against a manuscript definition rather than fixing a bug in code. Each release adds inference machinery as well as point estimates: percentile-bootstrap intervals and Fieller sets in 0.3.0, a deterministic MBCO interval in 0.2.0 that avoids resampling entirely. The gauge residual and the pmed_sensitivity() helper suggest a growing concern with when the estimand does not decompose at all.
◆ Prediction
0.3.0 shipped a sensitivity helper for shared mediator-outcome confounding and a diagnostic that flags non-decomposability, so the next release most likely extends that diagnostic side rather than adding a fifth estimator family.
Alternatives to forecasting and probmed
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either forecasting or probmed.
collinear
collinear has broken its API twice to stop making the user pick thresholds.
nert
nert put fourteen TERN datasets behind one dispatcher and called it stable.
scTypeEval
scTypeEval judges single-cell annotations without needing a ground truth to judge them against.
medrobust
medrobust made its partial-identification bounds usable by giving them confidence intervals.
fluxnet-package
fluxnet keeps swapping its own plumbing — first a Python downloader, now a DuckDB backend.
See all forecasting alternatives → · See all probmed alternatives →
Recent activity from forecasting and probmed
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 1mo agoforecastingVignettes rebuilt under R 4.6.1
- 1mo agoprobmedFour estimator families on a cross-fitted corner-EIF core ⚡
- 2mo agoprobmedParallel mediators and a resampling-free MBCO interval ⚡
- 2mo agoprobmedFirst release: pmed() with the estimand corrected
- 2y agoforecastingVignettes rebuilt under R 4.3.2
- 5y agoforecastingVignettes rebuilt under R 4.0.4
- 7y agoforecastingStandard PIT and discretized log-normal scoring
- 7y agoforecastingThe version used for the book chapter, with pinned dependencies
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between forecasting and probmed?
Both compete on the same themes — r package — within Analytics. forecasting and probmed are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is forecasting better than probmed?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. forecasting and probmed are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to forecasting?
Top forecasting alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "forecasting alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/forecasting for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probmed?
Top probmed alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probmed alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probmed for the full list with editorial commentary on each.