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Comparison · Analytics
forecast vs mlr3proba
A side-by-side editorial comparison of forecast and mlr3proba — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
forecast vs mlr3proba: at a glance
What is forecast?
After years of pure maintenance, forecast 9.0.0 reopens the package
forecast is the long-established R forecasting package that fable was meant to succeed. For several years its releases were RNG fixes, base-R compatibility and documentation. Then 9.0.0 arrived with a batch of new model constructors, wider prediction-interval support and a rewritten accuracy() built on S3 methods.
What is mlr3proba?
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
mlr3proba provides probabilistic supervised learning for mlr3 — survival analysis, density estimation, and the measures that go with them. Recent releases are almost entirely upkeep: a distr6 fork to work around an upstream problem, an ooplah fix, a predict-type correction, and registration in mlr_reflections$loaded_packages. The one deletion is telling, with LearnerDensPenalized removed after pendensity left CRAN.
forecast vs mlr3proba: editorial side-by-side
forecast
0.0ANALYTICS
After years of pure maintenance, forecast 9.0.0 reopens the package
◆ Current state
forecast is the long-established R forecasting package that fable was meant to succeed. For several years its releases were RNG fixes, base-R compatibility and documentation. Then 9.0.0 arrived with a batch of new model constructors, wider prediction-interval support and a rewritten accuracy() built on S3 methods.
◆ Where it's heading
The major version reframes forecast around explicit *_model() constructors — mean, random walk, spline, theta, Croston — rather than the older function-per-method style, and the 9.0.x patches since have been performance and argument-handling cleanups on top. That is an active maintenance line, not a package winding down in favour of fable.
◆ Prediction
Expect continued 9.0.x patches consolidating the new constructors and their forecast methods, with the older interfaces kept working alongside them.
mlr3proba
0.0ANALYTICS
mlr3proba is shedding weight as its survival work moves into sibling packages
◆ Current state
mlr3proba provides probabilistic supervised learning for mlr3 — survival analysis, density estimation, and the measures that go with them. Recent releases are almost entirely upkeep: a distr6 fork to work around an upstream problem, an ooplah fix, a predict-type correction, and registration in mlr_reflections$loaded_packages. The one deletion is telling, with LearnerDensPenalized removed after pendensity left CRAN.
◆ Where it's heading
The package is being pared back rather than extended. Its README now points at survdistr and mlr3cmprsk as matured alternatives for parts of what it covers, which reads as scope being handed off, while the Cox proportional-hazards autoplot arrived from mlr3viz in the other direction. Several fixes exist to route around dependencies that broke or disappeared, which is the recurring cost of building on a long chain of specialized CRAN packages.
◆ Prediction
The dependency churn suggests more consolidation — further reliance on survdistr and mlr3cmprsk, and more learners retired when the package underneath them goes unmaintained.
Alternatives to forecast and mlr3proba
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either forecast or mlr3proba.
writexl
writexl spent nine years refusing to do formatting, then shipped all of it in 2.0.0.
rgbif
rgbif is steadily pushing users off paged searching and onto real downloads.
rstanarm
rstanarm is community-maintained now, tracking Stan and lme4 rather than adding models.
taxa
taxa started a ground-up rewrite in 2021 and has published almost nothing since.
rotl
rotl's whole release history is keeping name matching honest against a moving taxonomy.
See all forecast alternatives → · See all mlr3proba alternatives →
Recent activity from forecast and mlr3proba
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 2mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.10 registers itself in the mlr3 loaded-packages registry
- 4mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.9 drops LearnerDensPenalized after pendensity left CRAN
- 4mo agoforecastFixes for checkresiduals() and mstl() lambda handling
- 5mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.8
- 5mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.7
- 5mo agoforecastFaster ARFIMA search and forecast.mlm() argument handling
- 7mo agoforecastforecast 9.0.0 adds five model constructors and rewrites accuracy() ⚡
- 9mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.5
- 10mo agomlr3probamlr3proba 0.8.4 takes over the Cox proportional-hazards autoplot
- 1y agoforecastDocumentation and bug-fix release
- 2y agoforecastRNG state and base-R head/tail compatibility
- 2y agoforecastMuch faster hfitted() for ARIMA and ETS models
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between forecast and mlr3proba?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. forecast and mlr3proba are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is forecast better than mlr3proba?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. forecast and mlr3proba are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to forecast?
Top forecast alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "forecast alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/forecast-r for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to mlr3proba?
Top mlr3proba alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "mlr3proba alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/mlr3proba for the full list with editorial commentary on each.