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Comparison · Analytics
cfrnow vs NWCTrends
A side-by-side editorial comparison of cfrnow and NWCTrends — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Shared themes:r-package
cfrnow vs NWCTrends: at a glance
What is cfrnow?
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
What is NWCTrends?
The salmon status-review trend package, maintained one federal review cycle at a time
NWCTrends fits multivariate state-space trend models to Pacific salmon population data and generates the tables and figures used in NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center viability and status reviews. Its release history maps onto those review cycles rather than a development calendar: v1.0 carries the 2015 review code, v1.25 the 2020 review, v1.30 the changes since. The 2026 v1.31 is internal restructuring and a dependency swap.
cfrnow vs NWCTrends: editorial side-by-side
cfrnow
5.0ANALYTICS
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
◆ Current state
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
◆ Where it's heading
The arc runs from producing a single corrected CFR number toward supporting a full model-checking workflow. 0.2.0 added the pieces a modeller needs to defend an estimate: replicate line lists replayed through the real-time truncation, an ascertainment-ratio correction for when fatal and non-fatal cases enter the line list at different rates, and per-group CFRs from `brms` formulas. Delay coverage widened from LogNormal and Gamma to Weibull in the same release.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next release to keep widening covariate and pooling support rather than adding new outcome types, since every 0.2.0 addition extended the existing formula interface instead of replacing it.
NWCTrends
0.0ANALYTICS
The salmon status-review trend package, maintained one federal review cycle at a time
◆ Current state
NWCTrends fits multivariate state-space trend models to Pacific salmon population data and generates the tables and figures used in NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center viability and status reviews. Its release history maps onto those review cycles rather than a development calendar: v1.0 carries the 2015 review code, v1.25 the 2020 review, v1.30 the changes since. The 2026 v1.31 is internal restructuring and a dependency swap.
◆ Where it's heading
Development is driven by reproducibility of a specific government reporting product, so most work goes into making the report generation configurable and the fitting assumptions explicit rather than into new modelling. The 2020 cycle removed hard-coded per-population hacks and made the fitting window an explicit argument; the 2023 cycle moved plot styling into package options and clarified how missing data and zeros are handled in the published tables.
◆ Prediction
The cadence suggests the next substantive release arrives with the next status review rather than before it, most likely continuing the move of report parameters out of function signatures and into structured configuration.
Alternatives to cfrnow and NWCTrends
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cfrnow or NWCTrends.
epikit
epikit narrows to field-epidemiology helpers, handing proportions to a sibling package
SimInf
SimInf 10.0 turns an epidemic simulator into a tool that fits models to real time series
mutagen
A young package porting Stata's egen row-wise helpers to the tidyverse, one function per release
broman
A statistician's personal toolbox, growing one plotting utility at a time
qtl
R/qtl is in pure custodial mode: every recent release answers a compiler, not a user
See all cfrnow alternatives → · See all NWCTrends alternatives →
Recent activity from cfrnow and NWCTrends
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 5d agocfrnowdistspec dependency moves to CRAN
- 6d agocfrnowStratified CFR fits, Weibull delays, posterior-predictive checks
- 1mo agocfrnowFirst release: real-time CFR from a Bayesian mixture-cure model ⚡
- 7mo agoNWCTrendsReport params extracted to a list; gdata replaced with readxl
- 3y agoNWCTrendsPlot options move into package globals; figure data exported to CSV
- 5y agoNWCTrendsExplicit fitting window replaces implicit full-data fits
- 5y agoNWCTrendsInitial release packaging the 2015 status review code
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between cfrnow and NWCTrends?
Both compete on the same themes — r-package — within Analytics. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is cfrnow better than NWCTrends?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to cfrnow?
Top cfrnow alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cfrnow alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cfrnow for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to NWCTrends?
Top NWCTrends alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "NWCTrends alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/nwctrends-r for the full list with editorial commentary on each.