epidemics vs fabletools

fabletools is the framework layer under fable and fpp3 — mables, fables, accuracy measures, reconciliation, and the model arithmetic that lets forecasters express ensembles as expressions. Version 0.8.0 reworked that arithmetic: combination now uses a joint N-way convolution accounting for the full residual covariance across components rather than composing pairwise, and every arithmetic operator collapses to a single model_combination with correctly implied weights, so nested expressions like ((m1 + m2)/2 + m3)/2 flatten automatically. In parallel, the package has been shedding graphics to {ggtime} on a deliberately slow deprecation clock.

The framework is being narrowed and deepened at the same time. Narrowed, because plotting is moving out to a dedicated package over an announced two-year deprecation, leaving fabletools to modeling infrastructure. Deepened, because the recent statistical work targets correctness in places users could not easily inspect — combination weights, inverse-variance weighting computed on response rather than innovation residuals, reconciliation coherency matrices exposed via coherent_smat() and coherent_cmat(). Class hygiene follows the same instinct, with mdl_lst replacing lst_mdl and gaining augment(), glance(), and tidy() so global and reconciliation models report statistics like any other.

With combination and reconciliation infrastructure freshly reworked, the remaining announced work is the ggtime separation, so expect the graphics re-exports to keep degrading toward removal while modeling changes stay incremental.