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Comparison · Analytics
cfrnow vs spmodel
A side-by-side editorial comparison of cfrnow and spmodel — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Shared themes:r-package
cfrnow vs spmodel: at a glance
What is cfrnow?
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
What is spmodel?
Spatial regression in R, adding block kriging and then tuning the numerics underneath it
spmodel fits spatial linear and generalised linear models, for both point-referenced and areal data, with prediction and diagnostics attached. Block prediction arrived in 0.11.0 and the releases since have refined it. The most recent release changes optimiser behaviour: the default Nelder-Mead relative stopping tolerance tightens from 1e-4 to 1e-6 to reduce convergence on local rather than global maxima.
cfrnow vs spmodel: editorial side-by-side
cfrnow
5.0ANALYTICS
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
◆ Current state
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
◆ Where it's heading
The arc runs from producing a single corrected CFR number toward supporting a full model-checking workflow. 0.2.0 added the pieces a modeller needs to defend an estimate: replicate line lists replayed through the real-time truncation, an ascertainment-ratio correction for when fatal and non-fatal cases enter the line list at different rates, and per-group CFRs from `brms` formulas. Delay coverage widened from LogNormal and Gamma to Weibull in the same release.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next release to keep widening covariate and pooling support rather than adding new outcome types, since every 0.2.0 addition extended the existing formula interface instead of replacing it.
spmodel
0.0ANALYTICS
Spatial regression in R, adding block kriging and then tuning the numerics underneath it
◆ Current state
spmodel fits spatial linear and generalised linear models, for both point-referenced and areal data, with prediction and diagnostics attached. Block prediction arrived in 0.11.0 and the releases since have refined it. The most recent release changes optimiser behaviour: the default Nelder-Mead relative stopping tolerance tightens from 1e-4 to 1e-6 to reduce convergence on local rather than global maxima.
◆ Where it's heading
Two threads run in parallel. The first is expanding what can be predicted — point predictions, then areal averages over a region via block kriging, then better accuracy and efficiency for that path as the block size default moved from 1000 to 4000 in 0.12.0. The second is numerical trustworthiness, and it is unusually prominent here: a range-constraint option for stability in 0.9.0, a corrected log determinant of the fixed effects in the restricted log likelihood in 0.11.0, a cloud semivariogram that had been doubling the semivariance fixed in 0.11.1, and now a tighter optimiser tolerance. Several of these silently changed results before they were caught.
◆ Prediction
Expect the maintainers to keep publishing explicit reproduction instructions alongside numerical default changes, as 0.13.0 does by documenting the `control = list(reltol = 1e-4)` escape hatch. The entries give no signal of expansion beyond the current model families.
Alternatives to cfrnow and spmodel
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cfrnow or spmodel.
kernelshap
kernelshap makes permutation SHAP practical past eight features, then fixes the kernel weights it had wrong.
filtro
filtro moves to S7 and multiplies its feature-scoring methods in a single release.
modeltime.resample
modeltime.resample exists to keep backtesting working as tidymodels shifts underneath it.
modeltime.ensemble
modeltime.ensemble wakes after four years, and the work is all tune 2.0 compatibility.
shapviz
shapviz refines its SHAP plots release by release while chasing ggplot2's moving target.
See all cfrnow alternatives → · See all spmodel alternatives →
Recent activity from cfrnow and spmodel
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 5d agocfrnowdistspec dependency moves to CRAN
- 5d agocfrnowStratified CFR fits, Weibull delays, posterior-predictive checks
- 1mo agocfrnowFirst release: real-time CFR from a Bayesian mixture-cure model ⚡
- 2mo agospmodelTighter optimiser tolerance to avoid local maxima
- 6mo agospmodelEmpirical autocovariance function and better block kriging accuracy
- 9mo agospmodelCloud semivariogram doubling fixed; geometry warnings added
- 1y agospmodelBlock kriging for areal averages and their uncertainty ⚡
- 1y agospmodelRobust semivariogram and new covariance types for areal models
- 1y agospmodelRange constraint option and redefined covariance type names
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between cfrnow and spmodel?
Both compete on the same themes — r-package — within Analytics. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is cfrnow better than spmodel?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to cfrnow?
Top cfrnow alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cfrnow alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cfrnow for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to spmodel?
Top spmodel alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "spmodel alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/spmodel for the full list with editorial commentary on each.