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cfrnow vs fossilsim

A side-by-side editorial comparison of cfrnow and fossilsim — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.

Shared themes:r-package

cfrnow vs fossilsim: at a glance

Featurecfrnowfossilsim
SectorAnalyticsAnalytics
Velocity score5.00.0
Sparks · 30d00
Top themesepidemiology, bayesian-modelling, cfr-estimation, r-packagephylogenetics, simulation, trait-evolution, birth-death-models
Last editorial update12h ago1h ago
WebsiteVisit →Visit →

What is cfrnow?

A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks

cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.

Read the full cfrnow trajectory →

What is fossilsim?

A fossil-record simulator that quietly grew a trait-evolution engine.

FossilSim is a mature R package for simulating fossil records on phylogenetic trees, and its release cadence reflects that: long gaps punctuated by a single capability addition. The last four releases span three years, with the most recent being a compatibility sync to its companion Shiny front-end rather than new functionality. The core simulation surface has been stable since 2022.

Read the full fossilsim trajectory →

cfrnow vs fossilsim: editorial side-by-side

C
cfrnow
ANALYTICS
5.0

A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks

◆ Current state

cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.

◆ Where it's heading

The arc runs from producing a single corrected CFR number toward supporting a full model-checking workflow. 0.2.0 added the pieces a modeller needs to defend an estimate: replicate line lists replayed through the real-time truncation, an ascertainment-ratio correction for when fatal and non-fatal cases enter the line list at different rates, and per-group CFRs from `brms` formulas. Delay coverage widened from LogNormal and Gamma to Weibull in the same release.

◆ Prediction

Expect the next release to keep widening covariate and pooling support rather than adding new outcome types, since every 0.2.0 addition extended the existing formula interface instead of replacing it.

F
fossilsim
ANALYTICS
0.0

A fossil-record simulator that quietly grew a trait-evolution engine.

◆ Current state

FossilSim is a mature R package for simulating fossil records on phylogenetic trees, and its release cadence reflects that: long gaps punctuated by a single capability addition. The last four releases span three years, with the most recent being a compatibility sync to its companion Shiny front-end rather than new functionality. The core simulation surface has been stable since 2022.

◆ Where it's heading

The arc runs from sampling mechanics toward simulating what the organisms actually were. Version 2.2.0 taught the package to handle occurrence data for occurrence birth-death models; 2.3.0 then added trait simulation under Mk, BM and OU, which is a different kind of output than fossil ages. Since then the work has been maintenance and keeping the FossilSimShiny GUI in step, suggesting the authors consider the current model set feature-complete.

◆ Prediction

The pairing of the 2.3.3 release with a FossilSimShiny version bump points to the GUI, not the library, as where the next visible work lands. The entries do not show enough activity to predict a specific new model family.

Alternatives to cfrnow and fossilsim

Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cfrnow or fossilsim.

See all cfrnow alternatives → · See all fossilsim alternatives →

Recent activity from cfrnow and fossilsim

Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.

  1. 5d agocfrnowdistspec dependency moves to CRAN
  2. 6d agocfrnowStratified CFR fits, Weibull delays, posterior-predictive checks
  3. 1mo agocfrnowFirst release: real-time CFR from a Bayesian mixture-cure model
  4. 2y agofossilsimCompatibility bump for FossilSimShiny 1.1.2
  5. 4y agofossilsimBug fixes and documentation cleanup
  6. 4y agofossilsimTrait simulation arrives: Mk, BM and OU models
  7. 5y agofossilsimOccurrence handling for the occurrence birth-death model

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between cfrnow and fossilsim?

Both compete on the same themes — r-package — within Analytics. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.

Is cfrnow better than fossilsim?

Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.

What are the best alternatives to cfrnow?

Top cfrnow alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cfrnow alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cfrnow for the full list with editorial commentary on each.

What are the best alternatives to fossilsim?

Top fossilsim alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "fossilsim alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/fossilsim-r for the full list with editorial commentary on each.