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Comparison · Analytics
cfrnow vs EpiNow2
A side-by-side editorial comparison of cfrnow and EpiNow2 — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
Shared themes:epidemiologybayesian-modellingr-package
cfrnow vs EpiNow2: at a glance
What is cfrnow?
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
What is EpiNow2?
EpiNow2 unified its model interface, then went back to deepen the estimators behind it
EpiNow2 estimates reproduction numbers, infections and delay distributions from incomplete epidemiological reporting data. 1.8.0 was the structural turning point: every main modelling function now returns a consistent S3 object with `fit`, `args` and `observations`, reachable through shared accessors. The releases either side of it work on estimator quality — accumulation of irregularly reported data in 1.7.0, and a substantial expansion of `estimate_truncation()` in 1.9.0.
cfrnow vs EpiNow2: editorial side-by-side
cfrnow
5.0ANALYTICS
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
◆ Current state
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
◆ Where it's heading
The arc runs from producing a single corrected CFR number toward supporting a full model-checking workflow. 0.2.0 added the pieces a modeller needs to defend an estimate: replicate line lists replayed through the real-time truncation, an ascertainment-ratio correction for when fatal and non-fatal cases enter the line list at different rates, and per-group CFRs from `brms` formulas. Delay coverage widened from LogNormal and Gamma to Weibull in the same release.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next release to keep widening covariate and pooling support rather than adding new outcome types, since every 0.2.0 addition extended the existing formula interface instead of replacing it.
EpiNow2
0.0ANALYTICS
EpiNow2 unified its model interface, then went back to deepen the estimators behind it
◆ Current state
EpiNow2 estimates reproduction numbers, infections and delay distributions from incomplete epidemiological reporting data. 1.8.0 was the structural turning point: every main modelling function now returns a consistent S3 object with `fit`, `args` and `observations`, reachable through shared accessors. The releases either side of it work on estimator quality — accumulation of irregularly reported data in 1.7.0, and a substantial expansion of `estimate_truncation()` in 1.9.0.
◆ Where it's heading
The package spent this window paying down interface debt and is now extending from the tidier base. Options that existed only for `estimate_infections()` have been propagated outward: `estimate_truncation()` gained the full `dist_spec` delay families, `obs_opts()` observation model selection between Poisson and negative binomial, and the `likelihood` and `return_likelihood` settings that make prior-only fits and loo-compatible output possible. Hardcoded assumptions are being replaced by specifiable ones in the same motion — the truncation model's additive noise term was a fixed `sigma ~ normal(0, 1)` prior and is now a `dist_spec` argument.
◆ Prediction
Expect the remaining modelling functions to keep converging on the shared options interface, since the last two releases have each moved another function onto it. A new `estimate_dist()` for interval-censored linelist data suggests delay estimation is the area still gaining surface.
Alternatives to cfrnow and EpiNow2
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cfrnow or EpiNow2.
kernelshap
kernelshap makes permutation SHAP practical past eight features, then fixes the kernel weights it had wrong.
filtro
filtro moves to S7 and multiplies its feature-scoring methods in a single release.
modeltime.resample
modeltime.resample exists to keep backtesting working as tidymodels shifts underneath it.
modeltime.ensemble
modeltime.ensemble wakes after four years, and the work is all tune 2.0 compatibility.
shapviz
shapviz refines its SHAP plots release by release while chasing ggplot2's moving target.
See all cfrnow alternatives → · See all EpiNow2 alternatives →
Recent activity from cfrnow and EpiNow2
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 5d agocfrnowdistspec dependency moves to CRAN
- 5d agocfrnowStratified CFR fits, Weibull delays, posterior-predictive checks
- 1mo agocfrnowFirst release: real-time CFR from a Bayesian mixture-cure model ⚡
- 1mo agoEpiNow2estimate_truncation gains full delay and observation options
- 6mo agoEpiNow2Unified return objects and shared accessors across all models ⚡
- 1y agoEpiNow2Patch for an upstream rstan issue
- 1y agoEpiNow2Accumulation for irregularly reported data; unified priors
- 1y agoEpiNow2Matern kernel spectral density fix and GP prior revert
- 1y agoEpiNow2Gaussian Process model improvements and explicit defaults
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between cfrnow and EpiNow2?
Both compete on the same themes — epidemiology, bayesian-modelling, r-package — within Analytics. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is cfrnow better than EpiNow2?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to cfrnow?
Top cfrnow alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cfrnow alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cfrnow for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to EpiNow2?
Top EpiNow2 alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "EpiNow2 alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/epinow2 for the full list with editorial commentary on each.