tidytext
Finished, widely taught, and shipping roxygen fixes.
Comparison · Analytics
mlr3mbo vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of mlr3mbo and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
mlr3mbo vs probably: at a glance
What is mlr3mbo?
mlr3mbo picked its defaults from a benchmark study, not from taste
mlr3mbo does model-based and Bayesian optimisation for mlr3. Its 1.0.0 release added a dictionary of pre-built acquisition-function optimisers and, more consequentially, replaced the default surrogate, acquisition function and optimiser settings with values derived from a large-scale benchmark study. The releases since are corrections to the acquisition-optimiser path exposed by that new default configuration.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
mlr3mbo vs probably: editorial side-by-side
mlr3mbo
2.5ANALYTICS
mlr3mbo picked its defaults from a benchmark study, not from taste
◆ Current state
mlr3mbo does model-based and Bayesian optimisation for mlr3. Its 1.0.0 release added a dictionary of pre-built acquisition-function optimisers and, more consequentially, replaced the default surrogate, acquisition function and optimiser settings with values derived from a large-scale benchmark study. The releases since are corrections to the acquisition-optimiser path exposed by that new default configuration.
◆ Where it's heading
The package has moved from a toolkit that expected users to assemble a Bayesian optimisation loop into one with a defensible default loop, and the recent fixes — warm-start sizing on multi-objective archives, silently discarded terminators, stale x_domain values — are the consequences of more people running the default path.
◆ Prediction
Expect continued hardening of the acquisition-optimiser classes rather than new acquisition functions.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to mlr3mbo and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either mlr3mbo or probably.
textrecipes
Text features finally stay sparse all the way to the model.
workflowsets
workflowsets keeps widening what counts as a model worth comparing.
workflows
The tidymodels pipeline grew a third stage, and it happens after the model runs.
vetiver
Posit's MLOps package went quiet for two years, then came back to keep up with recipes.
patchwork
patchwork stopped being a ggplot composer and became a page composer.
See all mlr3mbo alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from mlr3mbo and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 23d agomlr3mboAcquisition optimiser fixes for warm starts and archives
- 3mo agomlr3mboDictionary lookup and restart-limit fixes
- 4mo agomlr3mborush 1.0.0 compatibility and Surrogate$check()
- 5mo agomlr3mbomlr3mbo 1.0.0 ships benchmark-derived default settings ⚡
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 10mo agomlr3mbomlr3learners 0.13.0 compatibility
- 11mo agomlr3mboMaintainer change and mlr3pipelines 0.9.0 upkeep
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between mlr3mbo and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. mlr3mbo is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 2.5 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is mlr3mbo better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. mlr3mbo is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 2.5 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to mlr3mbo?
Top mlr3mbo alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "mlr3mbo alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/mlr3mbo for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.