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Comparison · Analytics
epinowcast vs pedprobr
A side-by-side editorial comparison of epinowcast and pedprobr — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
epinowcast vs pedprobr: at a glance
What is epinowcast?
epinowcast added Gaussian processes to its formula interface and made the sampler twice as fast
epinowcast is a Bayesian nowcasting toolkit for right-truncated epidemiological count data, built on Stan with a brms-style formula interface. Over 2025-2026 it moved from experimental to stable, prepared for CRAN, and broadened past nowcasting proper — 0.6.0's max_delay = 1 support allows purely retrospective fitting of fully reported counts. 0.7.0 in July 2026 is the largest modelling release in the window.
What is pedprobr?
pedprobr is the likelihood engine, and it keeps finding ways to compute what it previously could not.
pedprobr computes pedigree likelihoods for the ped suite. Version 1.1.0 updated its loop handling to match pedtools 2.11.0, including founder and repeated loop breakers, and improved the peeling algorithm with single-child shortcuts and lower memory use. Version 1.0.0 was the other expansion: special lumping lets markers with mutation models that are un-lumpable in the Kemeny-Snell sense be lumped anyway in certain cases, with alleleLimit as a fallback for the rest.
epinowcast vs pedprobr: editorial side-by-side
epinowcast
0.0ANALYTICS
epinowcast added Gaussian processes to its formula interface and made the sampler twice as fast
◆ Current state
epinowcast is a Bayesian nowcasting toolkit for right-truncated epidemiological count data, built on Stan with a brms-style formula interface. Over 2025-2026 it moved from experimental to stable, prepared for CRAN, and broadened past nowcasting proper — 0.6.0's max_delay = 1 support allows purely retrospective fitting of fully reported counts. 0.7.0 in July 2026 is the largest modelling release in the window.
◆ Where it's heading
The package is converging on a general formula-driven latent process toolkit rather than a single nowcasting model. rw() and arima() were joined in 0.7.0 by gp(), a Hilbert-space reduced-rank Gaussian process placeable on any module's linear predictor with selectable kernels and an integration order matching arima()'s d. Alongside it, the fixed-effects design and integrated residuals are now centred against the module intercept, which the notes report roughly doubles sampling speed on a weekly random-walk growth model.
◆ Prediction
With CRAN preparation done in 0.6.0 and the model surface substantially widened in 0.7.0, the next release is likely a CRAN submission plus consolidation of the gp() kernels. The release notes repeatedly benchmark against EpiNow2's behaviour, suggesting continued convergence between the two codebases.
pedprobr
0.0ANALYTICS
pedprobr is the likelihood engine, and it keeps finding ways to compute what it previously could not.
◆ Current state
pedprobr computes pedigree likelihoods for the ped suite. Version 1.1.0 updated its loop handling to match pedtools 2.11.0, including founder and repeated loop breakers, and improved the peeling algorithm with single-child shortcuts and lower memory use. Version 1.0.0 was the other expansion: special lumping lets markers with mutation models that are un-lumpable in the Kemeny-Snell sense be lumped anyway in certain cases, with alleleLimit as a fallback for the rest.
◆ Where it's heading
Every significant release here removes a class of computation that used to be infeasible, either by making a marker lumpable or by making a loop breakable. The rest is steady peeling-algorithm optimization, which has been reducing memory footprint release after release since 0.9.2. The newly added .diagnostics option suggests the peeling internals are now complex enough that the maintainer needs to inspect them.
◆ Prediction
Since special lumping is documented as covering only some cases so far, expect further lumping situations to be implemented as pedmut adds them.
Alternatives to epinowcast and pedprobr
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either epinowcast or pedprobr.
spsurvey
spsurvey has spent four years consolidating after its 5.0.0 rewrite rather than adding to it
StreamCatTools
StreamCatTools is quietly moving off web services and onto cloud-native GeoParquet
reproducible
reproducible added a windowed read path so remote GeoTiffs never fully download
qcTAF
qcTAF is building an automated checklist for reproducible fisheries assessments, one criterion at a time
rpymat
After three dormant years, rpymat returned to fix the OpenMP crash that breaks R and conda together
See all epinowcast alternatives → · See all pedprobr alternatives →
Recent activity from epinowcast and pedprobr
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 1mo agoepinowcastgp() brings Gaussian processes to every module, and centring doubles sampling speed ⚡
- 1mo agopedprobrLoop handling updated for pedtools' new loop breakers
- 3mo agoepinowcastCRAN preparation, inspection methods, and retrospective-only fitting
- 7mo agoepinowcastStructural reporting patterns for non-daily reporting cycles
- 10mo agoepinowcastLifecycle moves to stable; pathfinder and negative binomial support
- 1y agopedprobrCRAN example rounding fix
- 1y agopedprobrSpecial lumping for previously un-lumpable mutation models
- 1y agopedprobrGenotype distributions gain sparse and table output
- 2y agopedprobrPeeling order bug fix
- 2y agoepinowcastNon-parametric reference date models and a stricter max_delay default
- 2y agopedprobrPartial genotype fix for singletons
- 3y agoepinowcastFix initial conditions for cmdstan 2.32.1 compatibility
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between epinowcast and pedprobr?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. epinowcast and pedprobr are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is epinowcast better than pedprobr?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. epinowcast and pedprobr are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to epinowcast?
Top epinowcast alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "epinowcast alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/epinowcast for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to pedprobr?
Top pedprobr alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "pedprobr alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/pedprobr for the full list with editorial commentary on each.