tidytext
Finished, widely taught, and shipping roxygen fixes.
Comparison · Analytics
cmdstanr vs probably
A side-by-side editorial comparison of cmdstanr and probably — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
cmdstanr vs probably: at a glance
What is cmdstanr?
cmdstanr keeps adding fast approximations beside full HMC, and fighting Windows toolchains.
cmdstanr is the lightweight R interface to CmdStan, shelling out to the Stan binary rather than embedding it. The visible releases pair inference-method expansion, with laplace and pathfinder arriving in 0.7.0, against a continuous effort to make installation work on Windows. The most recent releases are dominated by CmdStan version compatibility and numerical fixes in the loo path.
What is probably?
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
cmdstanr vs probably: editorial side-by-side
cmdstanr
0.0ANALYTICS
cmdstanr keeps adding fast approximations beside full HMC, and fighting Windows toolchains.
◆ Current state
cmdstanr is the lightweight R interface to CmdStan, shelling out to the Stan binary rather than embedding it. The visible releases pair inference-method expansion, with laplace and pathfinder arriving in 0.7.0, against a continuous effort to make installation work on Windows. The most recent releases are dominated by CmdStan version compatibility and numerical fixes in the loo path.
◆ Where it's heading
The package tracks CmdStan closely, and its own work concentrates in two places. One is broadening the method surface so approximate inference sits beside sampling on the same object, extended in 0.8.0 by letting a completed fit supply initial values for the next run. The other is cutting installation friction, which reaches its conclusion in 0.9.0 with RTools45 supported and no additional toolchain setup needed on Windows. Dependency trimming, such as dropping RcppEigen for direct Eigen interop, runs alongside both.
◆ Prediction
The cadence is a CmdStan release followed by a compatibility release here, so expect the next to track a newer CmdStan and continue the effective-sample-size numerical work in the loo method.
probably
0.0ANALYTICS
The package that made calibration a step instead of an afterthought.
◆ Current state
probably started as a small utility for class predictions and equivocal zones, and version 1.0.0 turned it into tidymodels' calibration and uncertainty package: cal_plot_*, cal_estimate_*, cal_validate_* and cal_apply across binary, multiclass and regression problems, plus conformal prediction intervals. Since then the work has been consolidation — a large internal refactor with no API change, split conformal and conformal quantile regression, bound_prediction(), and required_pkgs() and butcher methods so conformal objects can be deployed and stripped.
◆ Where it's heading
The recent releases are about making these objects survive leaving the session. butcher and required_pkgs() methods are what a model needs to be pinned, containerised and served, and their arrival alongside workflows adding a tailor postprocessing stage and vetiver adding probably support points the same way: calibration is being moved out of analysis scripts and into the deployed pipeline. The cal_*_none() reference implementations are the tell that calibration is now something people tune rather than apply once.
◆ Prediction
Expect the calibration functions to be reachable directly from a tuned workflow's postprocessing stage rather than applied to predictions afterwards, following the tailor integration that workflows just shipped.
Alternatives to cmdstanr and probably
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cmdstanr or probably.
textrecipes
Text features finally stay sparse all the way to the model.
workflowsets
workflowsets keeps widening what counts as a model worth comparing.
workflows
The tidymodels pipeline grew a third stage, and it happens after the model runs.
vetiver
Posit's MLOps package went quiet for two years, then came back to keep up with recipes.
patchwork
patchwork stopped being a ggplot composer and became a page composer.
See all cmdstanr alternatives → · See all probably alternatives →
Recent activity from cmdstanr and probably
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 4mo agocmdstanrRTools45 support; Windows needs no extra toolchain setup
- 4mo agocmdstanrBugfix release: SUNDIALS linking, Windows paths, RTools
- 4mo agocmdstanrCmdStanFit objects usable as initial values; RcppEigen dropped
- 10mo agoprobablyConformal objects gain required_pkgs() and butcher methods
- 1y agoprobablyggplot2 test updates and a clearer validation-set error
- 1y agoprobablyCalibration internals refactored; isotonic bootstrap bug fixed
- 2y agoprobablyFix grouping sensitivity to variable type
- 2y agocmdstanrBugfix release with dedicated hpp generation step
- 2y agocmdstanrLaplace and Pathfinder inference methods added ⚡
- 2y agocmdstanrjacobian argument enabled for optimization; assorted fixes
- 3y agoprobablySplit conformal and conformal quantile regression added
- 3y agoprobablyCalibration and conformal inference arrive in tidymodels ⚡
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between cmdstanr and probably?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. cmdstanr and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is cmdstanr better than probably?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cmdstanr and probably are shipping at a similar cadence (velocity 0.0 vs 0.0, both within Sparkpulse's "active" band). For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to cmdstanr?
Top cmdstanr alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cmdstanr alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cmdstanr for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to probably?
Top probably alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "probably alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/probably for the full list with editorial commentary on each.