mrbayes
mrbayes spent 2026 auditing its own Bayesian MR estimators for coding errors.
Comparison · Analytics
cfrnow vs trias
A side-by-side editorial comparison of cfrnow and trias — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
cfrnow vs trias: at a glance
What is cfrnow?
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
What is trias?
Belgium's invasive-species indicator toolkit is in steady refinement, one plotting edge case at a time.
trias computes and visualizes indicators for the Belgian Tracking Invasive Alien Species project — emergence detection via GAMs, introduction pathway breakdowns following CBD categories, and native range trends. The recent releases are narrow: GAM plots can now be produced without textual annotation when the model cannot be fitted, and apply_decision_rules() no longer supplies a default for a required argument.
cfrnow vs trias: editorial side-by-side
cfrnow
5.0ANALYTICS
A Bayesian real-time CFR estimator that now ships stratified fits and posterior-predictive checks
◆ Current state
cfrnow estimates case fatality ratios from line-list data while an outbreak is still running, using a Bayesian mixture-cure survival model registered as an `epidist` model type. Three releases in a month took it from first public release to stratified, partially-pooled fits with posterior-predictive checking. It leans on `distspec` for delay parameterisation, which reached CRAN alongside the 0.2.1 patch.
◆ Where it's heading
The arc runs from producing a single corrected CFR number toward supporting a full model-checking workflow. 0.2.0 added the pieces a modeller needs to defend an estimate: replicate line lists replayed through the real-time truncation, an ascertainment-ratio correction for when fatal and non-fatal cases enter the line list at different rates, and per-group CFRs from `brms` formulas. Delay coverage widened from LogNormal and Gamma to Weibull in the same release.
◆ Prediction
Expect the next release to keep widening covariate and pooling support rather than adding new outcome types, since every 0.2.0 addition extended the existing formula interface instead of replacing it.
trias
0.0ANALYTICS
Belgium's invasive-species indicator toolkit is in steady refinement, one plotting edge case at a time.
◆ Current state
trias computes and visualizes indicators for the Belgian Tracking Invasive Alien Species project — emergence detection via GAMs, introduction pathway breakdowns following CBD categories, and native range trends. The recent releases are narrow: GAM plots can now be produced without textual annotation when the model cannot be fitted, and apply_decision_rules() no longer supplies a default for a required argument.
◆ Where it's heading
Development runs in small, fast patches concentrated on making the indicator functions survive imperfect real-world input — pathways absent from the data, GAMs that will not converge, checklist files with unexpected columns. A second thread trims the package's own surface in favor of the data it ships, deprecating pathways_cbd() in favor of using the pathwayscbd data frame directly, while get_nubkeys() extends reach into GBIF Backbone taxon key resolution.
◆ Prediction
Expect continued patch-level hardening of the visualization functions and further reliance on GBIF services for taxon resolution, with no sign of a structural change to the indicator set.
Alternatives to cfrnow and trias
Other Analytics products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either cfrnow or trias.
lineup2
lineup2 ships once every few years, and 2026's release is a logo and a core-count tweak.
stringi
stringi has spent two years on build hardening since its Unicode 15.1 reset.
OHPL
A 2017 chemometrics method frozen in place, visited only when CRAN changes its documentation rules.
fastplyr
A fast dplyr stand-in that keeps finding new places to skip work entirely.
icesSAG
The ICES stock assessment client took upload away in 2024 and spent two years giving it back.
See all cfrnow alternatives → · See all trias alternatives →
Recent activity from cfrnow and trias
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 5d agocfrnowdistspec dependency moves to CRAN
- 5d agocfrnowStratified CFR fits, Weibull delays, posterior-predictive checks
- 1mo agocfrnowFirst release: real-time CFR from a Bayesian mixture-cure model ⚡
- 3mo agotriasGAM plots survive models that cannot be fitted
- 5mo agotriasColumn validation added to the download list update
- 6mo agotriasY-axis tick values corrected in pathway plots
- 6mo agotriasZenodo integration patch removes the DOI badge
- 6mo agotriasget_nubkeys() resolves GBIF Backbone taxon keys
- 6mo agotriaspathways_cbd() deprecated in favor of its data frame
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between cfrnow and trias?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is cfrnow better than trias?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. cfrnow is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Analytics products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to cfrnow?
Top cfrnow alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "cfrnow alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/cfrnow for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to trias?
Top trias alternatives in Analytics are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "trias alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/trias-r for the full list with editorial commentary on each.