finnts
Microsoft's automated forecasting framework, still mostly a one-maintainer effort.
Comparison · Infra & APIs
adjustedCurves vs ESPHome
A side-by-side editorial comparison of adjustedCurves and ESPHome — release velocity, themes, recent moves, and the top alternatives to consider.
adjustedCurves vs ESPHome: at a glance
What is adjustedCurves?
A survival curve package spending release after release correcting its own estimates
adjustedCurves computes confounder-adjusted survival and cumulative incidence curves across a range of estimators - IPTW, AIPTW, Aalen-Johansen, direct standardisation - with support for multiple imputation and bootstrapping. The recent releases are dominated by corrections to numbers the package already reported. Version 0.11.4 fixed cumulative incidence estimates under method="aalen_johansen" that were being read one time step early, which the maintainer notes could differ substantially when events are few, and added risk and event counts to the ggsurvplot conversion including correctly pooled values under multiple imputation.
What is ESPHome?
ESPHome ships on a calendar, and the August beta train is now four builds deep.
ESPHome runs a monthly release train with a beta series ahead of each version. The 2026.7 line closed out with four patch releases covering sensor correctness and build-system behaviour — a device adoption failure caused by concurrent clone cache resolution, ESP-IDF honouring compile process limits, wider C++ source globbing and a lock on WiFi scan results shared with the captive portal. The 2026.8 cycle is now at its fourth beta, with the substance still behind the beta changelog site rather than in the feed.
adjustedCurves vs ESPHome: editorial side-by-side
adjustedCurves
0.0INFRA · APIS
A survival curve package spending release after release correcting its own estimates
◆ Current state
adjustedCurves computes confounder-adjusted survival and cumulative incidence curves across a range of estimators - IPTW, AIPTW, Aalen-Johansen, direct standardisation - with support for multiple imputation and bootstrapping. The recent releases are dominated by corrections to numbers the package already reported. Version 0.11.4 fixed cumulative incidence estimates under method="aalen_johansen" that were being read one time step early, which the maintainer notes could differ substantially when events are few, and added risk and event counts to the ggsurvplot conversion including correctly pooled values under multiple imputation.
◆ Where it's heading
Multiple imputation is the recurring fault line. The standard error pooling formula was implemented incorrectly until 0.11.2, then fixed again in 0.11.3 for the bootstrapping-plus-imputation combination, and 0.11.4 added the pooled risk table values that had previously been omitted entirely. A separate thread quietly removed capability: tmle and ostmle methods went in 0.10.0, and tmle support was pulled again in 0.11.1 after the concrete package left CRAN. Feature work does happen - risk tables, contrast arguments, the extend_to_last control on IPTW curves - but it is outweighed by correction.
◆ Prediction
Expect continued estimator-level corrections rather than new methods, and a possible return of tmle support if its upstream dependency returns to CRAN, since the removal was described as temporary.
ESPHome
5.0INFRA · APIS
ESPHome ships on a calendar, and the August beta train is now four builds deep.
◆ Current state
ESPHome runs a monthly release train with a beta series ahead of each version. The 2026.7 line closed out with four patch releases covering sensor correctness and build-system behaviour — a device adoption failure caused by concurrent clone cache resolution, ESP-IDF honouring compile process limits, wider C++ source globbing and a lock on WiFi scan results shared with the captive portal. The 2026.8 cycle is now at its fourth beta, with the substance still behind the beta changelog site rather than in the feed.
◆ Where it's heading
The cadence is the product. Betas arrive every day or two as bump merges carrying no notes, the final release points at a changelog URL, and the real detail lands in the patch releases that follow it. That makes the feed a poor guide to what actually changed in any given month — the 2026.7 patches are the only entries here with readable content, and they are dominated by per-component fixes from a wide set of outside contributors plus automated dependency and device-builder bumps.
◆ Prediction
Expect 2026.8.0 to go final within days of the beta series ending, followed by the usual run of patch releases carrying the per-component fixes that the beta entries never described.
Alternatives to adjustedCurves and ESPHome
Other Infra & APIs products tracked by Sparkpulse, ranked by recent ship velocity. Each card links to a full editorial trajectory and lets you pivot into a head-to-head comparison with either adjustedCurves or ESPHome.
BayLum
Bayesian luminescence dating that finally replaced its folder-structure input format.
daedalus
An epidemic-economic model teaching its interventions to react to the outbreak itself.
bkmrhat
A parallel-chain helper for bkmr that has settled into pure upkeep.
driveR
A cancer driver prioritization package that ships rarely and mostly to stay installable
metR
A meteorology ggplot2 extension where the netCDF reader became the main event
See all adjustedCurves alternatives → · See all ESPHome alternatives →
Recent activity from adjustedCurves and ESPHome
Latest ship moves from both products, interleaved chronologically. ⚡ = editorial spark.
- 1d agoESPHome2026.8.0 beta 4 tagged
- 4d agoESPHome2026.8.0b3
- 5d agoESPHome2026.8.0 beta 2 tagged
- 6d agoESPHome2026.8.0 beta 1 opens the August cycle
- 12d agoESPHomeDevice adoption and API buffer fixes land in 2026.7.4
- 21d agoESPHomeENC28J60 SPI timing fix, flagged as a breaking change
- 6mo agoadjustedCurvesOff-by-one-step error corrected in cumulative incidence estimates
- 1y agoadjustedCurvesIPTW curves can now extend to the last observed time
- 2y agoadjustedCurvesDropped arguments and a wrong multiple-imputation pooling formula
- 2y agoadjustedCurvesRisk tables, contrast consolidation and faster bootstrapping
- 3y agoadjustedCurvestmle and ostmle methods dropped
- 3y agoadjustedCurvesDependency compatibility and installation documentation
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between adjustedCurves and ESPHome?
They serve adjacent needs but don't currently overlap on shipped themes. ESPHome is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. See the at-a-glance table above for a side-by-side breakdown of velocity, recent sparks, and editorial themes.
Is adjustedCurves better than ESPHome?
Sparkpulse doesn't pick a winner — we score release velocity, not feature parity. ESPHome is currently shipping more aggressively (velocity 5.0 vs 0.0), with 0 editorial sparks in the last 30 days against 0. For your specific use case, the alternatives sections above list other Infra & APIs products to evaluate alongside.
What are the best alternatives to adjustedCurves?
Top adjustedCurves alternatives in Infra & APIs are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "adjustedCurves alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/adjustedcurves for the full list with editorial commentary on each.
What are the best alternatives to ESPHome?
Top ESPHome alternatives in Infra & APIs are ranked by recent ship velocity. Browse the "ESPHome alternatives" section above for the current picks, or visit /alternatives/esphome for the full list with editorial commentary on each.